The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as a pivotal player in the West's ambitious plan to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. This strategy aims to sever Iraq's longstanding ties with Iran and shift the balance of power in the region away from China and Russia. With the UAE's support, the West hopes to maintain control over the world's largest oil and gas resources and solidify its dominance in the global energy market.
But here's where it gets controversial: the UAE's involvement is not without its complexities. The country's history with the West, particularly its military actions in Iraq, has raised questions about the success of this strategy. Gaining the tacit support of other Middle Eastern nations is seen as crucial, and the UAE's role becomes even more significant in this context.
Recently, UAE-based companies Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum announced the commencement of gas sales from the Khor Mor gas expansion project in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region. This project, completed eight months ahead of schedule, adds substantial capacity to the region's gas output. The consortium, which includes European partners, is also operating the Chemchemal gas field.
The increased gas production in Kurdistan is a strategic move by the West to foster greater cooperation between the Kurdistan Region and the Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) in Baghdad. The ultimate goal is to break Kurdistan's ties with Chinese, Russian, and Iranian entities, particularly those linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The U.S. and Israel also view Kurdistan as a strategic base for monitoring operations against Iran.
This strategy has evolved through three distinct phases since the U.S. military incursion into Iraq in 2003. Initially, U.S. and European oil and gas firms heavily invested in Iraq, establishing a strong Western presence. Chinese and Russian companies were also present but initially took a cautious approach due to the ongoing U.S. presence. The second phase saw a surge in Chinese and Russian activity after the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, leading to the departure of many Western firms due to increasing Iranian influence and corruption in Iraq's oil and gas sector.
The third phase began with Donald Trump's presidency and his 'you're either with us or against us' approach, which seemed to bring clarity to the geopolitical outlook of many Middle Eastern countries, including the UAE. The UAE's willingness to cooperate with the West has been a key development, especially given its previous concerns under the Biden administration.
A senior source working closely with the U.S. Treasury Department revealed that the UAE appears more inclined to follow Trump's 'relationship normalisation' model, as evidenced by its signing of the 'Abraham Accord' with Israel in 2020. This stance not only benefits the West's Middle East strategy but is also crucial to Washington's efforts to position India as a counterbalance to China in the Asia-Pacific region.
The UAE's role in this complex geopolitical game is a fascinating development, and it will be interesting to see how this strategy unfolds and what impact it has on the region's future.
